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Statistical director thanks Fu Zhan: How to understand current and macroscopical

From;    Author:Stand originally
Since this year, national economy continues to maintain smooth and rapid development. Economy grows 11 first half of the year. 5 % , dweller consumption rises in price 3. 2 % , go up present ascendant impetus. How should be known after all and the macroscopical economic situation with current look upon, need thorough analysis and research.
One, judge macroscopical economic situation, want to see economy increase rate not only, see obtain employment, inflation, balance of payments even. Want to look in the round, cannot look one-sidedly, prevent to appear in order to slant without exception complete
This round of economy grows, from 2002 the bottom begins, enter ascendant passageway, arrived 2003 this year first half of the year, economic growth maintained 10 % continuously or summary prep above of 10 % add fast, economy moves overall and smooth, did not appear to rise and fall greatly. Grow 11 first quarter this year. 1 % , 2 quarters grow 11. 9 % , economic amplitude is in basically 1 the wave motion inside the interval of percent. 2 quarters economy is added fast accelerate, because world economy is close friends than anticipating,basically be, near future IMF already will world economy is added on average this year fast from 4. 7 % increases 5 % . Enterprise of together with part adjusts to exporting drawback and custom duty policy react ahead of schedule, grab before July 1 assault is exported, make 2 quarters favorable balance of trade increases more. The elimination of second half of the year as unusual element or abate, exit is added fast it is normal to be attributed to, look from year, growth hopeful replies normal level.
Nearly 5 years, it is the period with Chinese fluctuant and smooth and rapid growth, lesser economy. Meantime, we overcame the impact of SARS, removed the adverse effect that international market crude oil and price of partial raw product rise considerably, conquer all sorts of natural disaster. Develop quickly as economic abidance, countryman economically a big steps leading up to a house, economic gross is jumped from 12 trillion yuan of 2002 rise 20 trillion yuan of above, GDP of average per capita reachs 2000 dollar. Should say, the achievement that national economy grows more quickly smoothly is hard-earned.
The basic stability that maintains price total level is the main goal of macroscopical economic policy. Come 4 many years, international market crude oil reachs spurt in prices of resource sex product, crude price is controlled from the bucket of 25 dollar / before thalassic 2003 war, jump litre to above of bucket of 70 dollar / , average price level exceeded barrel of 60 dollar / . Price of other raw product rate rises differently. Producer price of industrial product of influence our country year all rise 4. 1 % , raw material, fuel, motivation purchases the value year all rise 7. 6 % , and the dweller consumes the price year all rise only 2. 1 % ; Core CPI basic stability is under 1 % . 2004 of CPI short-term rise, this year 5, June of CPI rise with farming the price wave motion of animal produce is concerned. Because supply demand relations of international grain market and price change are affected to our country conductibility,this is greatly, add year of fleshy price on the low side, bring about live pig amount of livestock on hand, give column to drop. The core price index after deducting food and item of the sources of energy first half of the year this year rises only 0. 9 % . Accordingly, the short-term wave motion of the price basically is structural sex, and industrial product producer price and power of raw material fuel purchase the price to go up in fall after a rise. Always rise in light of, total supply, total demand concerns and did not produce mutation. Review mixed 1973 twice oil crisis was opposite 1982 the concussion that each economic progress of industrialized country forms at that time, comparative our country shows the economic progress of level and price level, the macroscopical adjusting control that shows us is fruitful.
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